Figure 3

Effect of ignoring and accounting for oophorectomy on BRCAPRO. Effect of ignoring and accounting for an oophorectomy at age 35 on a relative's post-oophorectomy contribution to the BRCAPRO Bayes Factor for BRCA1. Solid lines account for the oophorectomy, but dashed lines ignore the oophorectomy, and the dotted line censors the relative at their age of oophorectomy. The person got peritoneal cancer, breast cancer, or no cancer at the age indicated on the x-axis. The four panels vary the hazard reduction due to oophorectomy. In the top left, the hazard reduction due to oophorectomy is the same for BRCA1 carriers and non-carriers: 0.46 and 0.12, on time to subsequent breast and peritoneal cancer respectively. In the top right, the hazard reduction for oophorectomy in BRCA1 non-carriers increases to 0.32 and 0.05 for breast and peritoneal cancer respectively. In the bottom left, the hazard reduction for oophorectomy in BRCA1 carriers decreases to 0.65 and 0.25 for breast and peritoneal cancer respectively. The bottom right has hazard reductions for breast cancer of 0.65 and 0.32 in carriers and non-carriers respectively and hazard reductions for peritoneal cancer of 0.25 and 0.05 in carriers and non-carriers respectively.